Friday 12 June 2020

Coronavirus update - Part V

Update 4: another week another uptick, more on health data trials&tribulations next
Update 3: the uptick smoothed... but "flatten the curve" certainly hasn't happened yet!
Update 2: and right on cue: UK coronavirus cases no longer falling, ONS figures show
Update 1: an uptick in ONS deaths reported a week behind matches last week's uptick in NHSx cases... flattening the curve? Not!  ]

Previously we reported on extending COVID-19 datasets down to Ward (MSOA) from County (UTLA) level. To recap, NHSx post cases and deaths from hospitals in a single dashboard, whereas ONS post death data across many systems with geo-socio-economics. And while we report on the highest geographic granularity publicly available, at the country level weekly reports are the common denominator across agencies. ONS posts data weekly 2-4 weeks behind depending on scale as discussed before, whereas NHSx posts daily 1-2 days behind also discussed before. Having calculated weekly data from NHSx to match ONS time stamps. they're graphed here (click images to enlarge).

NHSx cases peaked on 5 April and the cumulative curve doesn't appear to be flattening.

14 July update

ONS deaths peaked on 19 April and the cumulative curve doesn't seem to be flattening either.

14 July update

Here they are combined at separate scales, remembering ONS data are a little behind.

14 July update

Note: an issue arose when compiling weekly data from NHSx daily data. Their cumulative values didn't line up with calculated cumulative weekly data. And while that request was put to NHSxPHE contact on NHSx page, see this presentation how I resolved that issue: basically adjusting weekly sums to match NHSx cumulative data.

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