Coronavirus update - Part VII

 Since the last update, NHSx has significantly upgraded Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK:

• In addition to Cases and Death, Testing and Healthcare are on offer in various subdivisions. 
• On the downside, we still don't have Release / Recovery data, which appeared briefly mid-March under PHE tenure, then no more under NHSx. 
• On the upside we get Middle layer Super Output Area (MSOA) or Ward-level equivalent, a vast improvement over Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA) or County-level equivalent data. 

These are reflected in the CamCOVIDinfo dashboard maintained since mid-March:

click to enlarge

Notice, however, the slight uptick in the lower left hand graph: While were are experiencing a reduction in the pandemic, we certainly aren't done yet, and a second wave still lurks in our collective minds.

This is best detailed in combining NHSx data above that release hospital data, and Office for National Statistics (ONS) that release wider range of data out-of-hospitals: 

click to enlarge

• Areas are NHSx cases (bottom blue) and cumulative (top red), scale at left.
• Lines are ONS deaths (bottom green) and cumulative (top purple), scale at right.
• The top line fortuitously highlights the jump on NHSx cumulative cases.

... In other words, as said before, there is NO flattening the curve yet! 

 

Cottenham Open Manifesto

Local Community Engagement 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 & 13

[ Update: Item #5 has already started  at ARU Peterborough, see bottom clip ]

The previous post tallied three series - community engagement, and geo-info and pandemic maps & stats - since starting cottenham.info almost 18 mo. ago. Not only will Anthropocene East Anglia give a geo-historical framework for it all, it also highlights the opportunities and challenges in the future, which we proposes to address. Let's detail our proposed road map issued from all this as well as discussions with local councils, ecologists, and neighbouring village revival planners:

Cottenham Open Status Quo

[ Update: next post entered into listing below as #13 ]

Terry Jackson and I started cottenham.info almost 18 mo. ago, so perhaps it's time to look at what we've prepared so far, in order to frame the Manifesto in our next post.

Coronavirus update - Part VI

[Update: on 28 July both cases and deaths appear to be flattening at last, stay tuned!

Update: NHSx cases pass the ¼M mark with uptick and without "flattening the curve"  ]

The previous post and its updates showed the progress of NHSx and ONS daily and cumulative numbers of COVID19 cases and deaths, ending with some internal consistencies in NHSx reporting. Those appear to have been remedied now.

Coronavirus update - Part V

Update 4: another week another uptick, more on health data trials&tribulations next
Update 3: the uptick smoothed... but "flatten the curve" certainly hasn't happened yet!
Update 2: and right on cue: UK coronavirus cases no longer falling, ONS figures show
Update 1: an uptick in ONS deaths reported a week behind matches last week's uptick in NHSx cases... flattening the curve? Not!  ]

Previously we reported on extending COVID-19 datasets down to Ward (MSOA) from County (UTLA) level. To recap, NHSx post cases and deaths from hospitals in a single dashboard, whereas ONS post death data across many systems with geo-socio-economics. And while we report on the highest geographic granularity publicly available, at the country level weekly reports are the common denominator across agencies. ONS posts data weekly 2-4 weeks behind depending on scale as discussed before, whereas NHSx posts daily 1-2 days behind also discussed before. Having calculated weekly data from NHSx to match ONS time stamps. they're graphed here (click images to enlarge).

Coronavirus update - Part IV

[Update: see next a wrap-up of COVID-19 cases & deaths data across NHSx & ONS]

The last update added ONS' COVID-related death data, which augment the cases and deaths posted by NHSx at the Local Authority level akin to Counties. The post ended with: Data will be added as found and/or made available: the goal is Parish-level data to mash up with our climate change maps. We already added in the second last update a map from Cambridgeshire Live, and we now see in Cambridgeshire Independent ONS "death data by ward and by villages".

Digital terrain models help create a picture - Part II

[ Update: see new arcgis.com interface for another view of this here & under Update 5 here ]

The previous post showed how digital terrain, surface (add buildings & vegetation) and elevation (detail topography) models highlight geomorphology (land features) and infrastructure (roads, canals etc.). That was in the Cambridgeshire area of the southern Fenlands of East Anglia, as a complement to sea level rise models from coastal inundation, as well as flood risk maps from rivers and from sea.

Digital terrain models help create a picture

[ Update: next post discusses same in the East Anglia coastal area of the Fenlands ]

The previous blog showed how to effectively portray coastal inundation, as it progresses inland from the encroachment of sea level rise. These were base on 30 m. resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) from OS OpenData as explained previously here.

Low tech / high tech map updates, Part II

[ Update: the next blog details and updates this via a story map and new data ]

Part I showed how high contrast map symbology of Sea Level Rise can be transferred to a paper map to take around events. When asked if I could scan and reprint that paper map, I thought: why print a hand-transfer, why not print the digital original? Better still: why not try and enhance that digital map to really give an impression of sea level rise gradually invading the land?

Coronavirus daily update - Part III

[ Update: see further updates at higher granularity geography in a later post
Also ONS numbers updated weekly maintain the difference with NHSx below]

Following on Part II adding local data for East of England, let's add weekly deaths (two weeks out of date) from ONS here and here, including counts outside of daily hospital deaths (two days out of date) from NHSx. Here is a graph of the raw data collected from both sources, since end-January onset of the pandemic in the UK.

Coronavirus time-enabled maps - Part II

Following on the initial post, this is a presentation live-streamed on YouTube below - thanks Daniel P. Hoffman for organising How to do Map Stuff yesterday! - liner notes are below that, ten-slide intro and step-by-step after that. Note that while data are open and the process can be done on any platform, the coxcomb symbology (slide 21) is ArcGIS Pro, tho someone may redo it elsewhere?

Coronavirus daily update - Part II

[ Update: see a follow-up post on how ONS data augment the NHSx death statistics ]

Daily updates brought you COVID-19 data for England in a dashboard that posted according to your desktop or mobile device (tablet coming soon). These statistics from NHSx show, however, only hospital data. It's been noted in the press that cases and especially deaths outside hospitals are not captured. ONS captures death data but not in a single dashboard like NHSx and two weeks behind.

Listen to the Scientists - Part II

[ Update: a later post shows another outreach tool, a poster depicting sea level rise scenarios ]

Part I showed web maps of London and East Anglia under 0.5, 2 and 6 m. sea level rise by mid-, end- and next century in moderate, far-tail and extreme IPCC emissions scenarios, respectively. The next post updated a simple approach to the public using paper maps, which are both visually arresting and factually correct. Videos are also an effective way to convey complex scenarios by animating those maps, and setting them in regional and local contexts. They help illustrate the climate emergency.

Coronavirus time-enabled maps

[Update: thrilled to present at How to do Map Stuff: a Live Community Sharing Event
Update: The Times' Sam Joiner just cleared  England COVID map for London crowding using ridge map animation] 

Local dashboards updated daily from Public Heath England data are bolstered by other open data: As coronavirus affects most notably the eldest and youngest, Office for National Statistics age distribution is a welcome addition to case distribution maps. A static web map showed cases and age distribution side-by-side - a story map has the full back story on its derivation - Kenneth Field's "coxcombs"  post static time-series that helped identify here vulnerable groups of elder and younger populations, and to overlay them atop progressive case numbers over a set time period.

Coronavirus daily update

Issues with the mnemonic link below? Try one of these! Mobile, tablet or desktop
Final update: single URL for desktop, tablet and mobile: bit.ly/CamCOVIDinfo
15 Apr. 2020: NHSX provides now COVID-19 daily updates from their new site
Update 5: further maps adding date of  confirmation and provenance in next post
Update 4: tweak two dashboards to work better on desktop and on mobile (see final)
Update 3: added population by age group for comparison, see bottom of right panel
Update 2: streamlined with one map incorporating all data + complete instructions
Update 1: mobile version added, added Persons Recovered (removed by PHE later)
Correction: user feedback showed importance of symbology to convey information

Coronavirus backgrounder

[Update: more dashboards local to Cambridgeshire shown in next blogpost]

This pandemic affects us all. You might be reading this from home. And while social distancing may become the norm, social isolation needn't be: Use social media, ye olde telephone, reach out! Here are some local resources gleaned from group meetings, the twitterverse and simple curiosity.

Low tech / high tech map updates

[ Update: see a follow-on post on how a poster helps get the sea level rise message in context ]

At last summer Street for Life (S4L) and Cottenham Beach Party events by Extinction Rebellion (XR) Cambridge, a simple sea level rise map was a hit with children and adults alike: I simply stuck on cardboard backing an Ordnance Survey 1:25,000 Explorer map of Cambridge on side, and villages immediately north on the other. The +5 and +15 m. sea level rises (SLR) from the 2006 firetreemap  were hand-drawn, but eyeballing it made it pretty inaccurate... and +15 and +5 m. were picked because they overlapped Cambridge and villages north, rather than anything scientific!

Listen to the scientists

[Update 2: in Part II, XR Cambridge Rebel Scientists produced a video tying it all together
Update: East Anglia Fenlands + London Thames Valley inundation models now on YouTube!]

This is what happened at the first Extinction Rebellion Cambridge working group of concerned  scientists, on the topic of sea level rise (SLR) among many others discussed then. As posted earlier here, the scientific consensus lies at 0.5 and 2 m. SLR by mid- and end-century in moderate emissions and far-tail scenarios, respectively. That meeting reiterated, however, the importance of an extreme scenario, ~ 6 m. SLR from the melting of various ice sheets: 7 m. is in fact the default SLR setting for the original sea level rise map, flood.firetree.net.

Climate Emergency maps as easy as 1-2-3

Almost 2½ years ago I blogged then presented Emergency response maps as easy as 1-2-3 - in fact that helped spur on my current venture described in previous posts - and now apply the same to do inundation maps from sea level rise as well as river run-off.

Areas affected by sea level rise scenarios

Local Community Engagement 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, & 12

So far we've looked at sea level rise, timing, temperature regime and risk of flooding from land and from sea. These scenarios were developed using open data from Ordnance Survey and Climate Central for elevation models, UK Met Office for temperature and DEFRA for flooding. This was also put in a time and IPCC scenario context from scientific publications.

The second most important thing  for East Anglia Fenlands residents after the timing of such scenarios, is the actual areas affected by them. Having collected all the underpinning information, it was a matter of overlaying climate data with settlement data: infrastructure was posted in Part 2  from OS Open Zoomstack, and settlements were posted in Part 6 as a local Wikimedia gazetteer.