Wednesday, 27 November 2019

Local ommunity Engagement, Part 7

Part 1 introduced this project to engage local residents in villages north of Cambridge UK. Part 2 elaborated on some resources available and communication via Story Maps. Part 3 looked at three more resources, introduced an open call and closed with an Elevator Pitch. Part 4 looked at community engagement's key differentiator, to search for local info your way, not the search engines'. Part 5 introduced our own Wikipedia Gazetteer map to complete our infrastructure guide of "What is in Cambridgeshire?" And Part 6 is a manifesto of sorts, in the form of a draft press release.

I have since created from Open Data and written in Medium a number of climate change models with regards to sea level rise and coastal inundation. This arose from a statement in my new Cottenham Open LinkedIn channel:
What will East Anglia look like after sea level rise, and in what  time-frame? There's no community engagement without knowing your environment!

Literature

Let me start with three statements in the literature that should alleviate any concerns around either sensationalising or debunking Climate Change in the press:
  • Climate Central, whose data are used here, said in Nature Communications: “experts now estimate there is a 5 percent chance 21st century sea-level rise will exceed 2 m.”
  • some to&fro-ing with Climate Deniers brought up the aspect of coastal subsidence & glacial rebound I know&love as a geologist - some coastal regions  like Houston or Bangkok slide into adjoining gulfs as they sit on soft sediment, other regions like Arctic Canada and East Anglia have risen slightly as Quaternary ice shelves disappeared - Deniers wish they'd never asked...
  • right on cue, NASA / JPL scientists  modelled Antarctic ice sheets incl. aspects of the above, and they “ estimated that projections [for sea level rise factoring subsidence &/or rebound] for the next 100 years are within about 1% of previous projections for that same time period. ”

Cambridge North

(click to enlarge)
The only thing that matters is this map of possible coastal inundation from 2 m. sea level rise by century's end: Hold your beach balls, parasols and deck chairs... neither Waterbeach nor Landbeach will become beaches anytime soon!

Blue shows possible encroachment, and green the land as we see it now. The top map is drawn from Ordnance Survey Open Data direct calculation of local surveying. The bottom one is from Climate Central's recalculation of previous global topographic maps derived from satellites, and projected correctly to local conditions. The model is simply to mask in blue where it is less than 2 m. above current mean sea level, and to leave transparent everything else. You thus see current topography and new high waterline.


East Anglia

This doesn't mean that all's well, however, as a third of East Anglia will still be inundated as shown:

OS Open Data (L), CoastalDEM (R), below sea level (blue), +2m. inundation (white)

Spatial statistics on the map show that 17% (L) & 14% (R) land is below sea level today in the area above. A simple 2 m. sea level rise will put 32% (L) & 28% (R) land below sea level. Note that these are straight elevation statistics, not environmental modelling such as absorption, run-off etc. And while current sub sea level structures help drain the Fens, such a sea level rise would inundate around 30% of East Anglia! Details tabled here.
That's an average 32.5% increase: in other words a third more of the land would become un-arable in East Anglia, England's breadbasket
As mentioned in Medium above, part of the climate change risk & mitigation efforts revolve around coastal inundation. We started with a time frame and probability, and we end now with are areal estimate from simple modelling. Again as mentioned in Medium above, all of these are based on relatively simple maps that can be derived by you, concerned citizens, to help you sort fact from fiction.

Friday, 15 November 2019

Local Community Engagement, Part 6

Part 1 introduced this project to engage local residents in villages north of Cambridge UK. Part 2 elaborated on some resources available and communication via Story Maps. Part 3 looked at three more resources, introduced an open call and closed with an Elevator Pitch. Part 4 looked at community engagement's key differentiator, to search for local info your way, not the search engines'. Let's round this off with our own gazetteer, and then touch on issues around sea level rise maps. And Part 5 introduced our own Wikipedia Gazetteer map - jointly with Terry's Wikipedia savvy and Adrew's mapping skills - to complete our infrastructure guide of "What is in Cambridgeshire?".

Thursday, 3 October 2019

Local community engagement, Part 5

[Update: Part 6 shows a draft Press Release introducing our social enterprise]

Part 1 introduced this project to engage local residents in villages north of Cambridge UK. Part 2 elaborated on some resources available and communication via Story Maps. Part 3 looked at three more resources, introduced an open call and closed with an Elevator Pitch. Part 4 looked at community engagement's key differentiator, to search for local info your way, not the search engines'. Let's round this off with our own gazetteer, and then touch on issues around sea level rise maps.

Sunday, 8 September 2019

Local community engagement, Part 4

[Update: Part 5 adds our own Wikipedia Gazetteer as we build up the local landscape]

Part 1 introduced this project to engage local residents in villages north of Cambridge UK. Part 2 elaborated on some resources available and communication via Story Maps. Part 3 looked at three more resources, introduced an open call and closed with an Elevator Pitch. Let's look now at community engagement's key differentiator: Search for local info your way, not the search engines'

Monday, 19 August 2019

Local community engagement, Part 3

[Update: please see the follow-up post expand on our aim in community engagement.]

Part 1 introduced the project to engage local residents in villages north of Cambridge UK. Part 2 elaborated on some resources available and communication via Story Maps. Let's look at three more resources, Three I's of County Planning,  Top Ten tips for Policy Mapping and Smart Cities are decades away but open cities are within reach, then introduce OpenActive's open call, and close with an Elevator Pitch coming from all this.


Saturday, 13 July 2019

Community, climate and maps (updated)

[Update1: Northwest Passage: Maps and words adds more illustrations and better maps
Update2: see also this video Arctic Sea Ice Summer based on improved maps above
Update 3: further story map Fire & Ice - Arctic past and future climes focused onshore]

You know you're onto something when your activities converge like so:
  • ever since geologising in the Arctic 30 yrs ago, about the time of initial finds of Franklin lost expedition by Owen Beattie
  • finding out while up there that there was a cat&mouse game between Americans and Canadians over the Northwest Passage
  • recently mapping historic tall ships climate data, as a complement to more recent & land based data, now that it's absolutely critical we better understand climate dynamics
  • using a sea-level rise map resulting from polar ice melts to raise awareness of the climate emergency at a recent Extinction Rebellion event in my hometown

Friday, 31 May 2019

Local Community Engagement, Part 2

[Update: please see the follow-up post as we build a story introducing the community.]

After introducing this social enterprise, let's look at some progress: We joined the Esri(UK) Non Profit, Ordnance Survey Data Hub and Open Street Map programs, all designed to help communities'  open data initiatives key to the next economy.

Monday, 25 March 2019

Local community engagement, Part 1

[Update: please see the follow-up post as we build a story introducing the community.]

This follows my transition introduced last September and last month. I first used Esri  web mapping tools to help me canvass for EU elections in my local community five years ago. I then found local community engagement - online in my old Texan hometown of Houston - 18 months ago with Hurricane Harvey. I presented social aspects  afforded GIS at Esri European Petroleum GIS  conference in London that fall.

Wednesday, 13 February 2019

Welcome to new friends

[Update: read here my  new occupation following this]

A fond farewell to two old friends explained my transition to open source platforms. As announced in LinkedIn You can get Andrew out of the geo... (... but you can't get the geo out of Andrew) "Terry Jackson pulled me back in to the publishing business as a data wrangler". What does that mean?

Wednesday, 30 January 2019

Dynamic maps - finis

My last post on dynamic maps and its preceding project recap five years ago outlined how I used ¼M point free-to-use dataset on global historic shipping and climate data. This is the original video of ships'  locations produced a decade ago on Esri ArcMap: