Saturday, 18 January 2020

Areas affected by sea level rise scenarios

Local Community Engagement, 122a34567891011 & 12


So far we've looked at sea level rise, timing, temperature regime and risk of flooding from land and from sea. These scenarios were developed using open data from Ordnance Survey and Climate Central for elevation models, UK Met Office for temperature and DEFRA for flooding. This was also put in a time and IPCC scenario context from scientific publications.

The second most important thing  for East Anglia Fenlands residents after the timing of such scenarios, is the actual areas affected by them. Having collected all the underpinning information, it was a matter of overlaying climate data with settlement data: infrastructure was posted in Part 2  from OS Open Zoomstack, and settlements were posted in Part 6 as a local Wikimedia gazetteer.

Maps


So here is this map updated with the settlements affected by current sea level and sea level rises of 0.5 and 2 m. As mentioned earlier, so much of the Fenlands is at or below sea level, that constant drainage is in place and settlements at sea level are at risk. Also discussed on last post,  a 0.5 m. sea level rise is a moderate risk scenario by mid-century, and 2 m. is a low risk scenario by end-century.




Note: if you toggle on the bottom two layers, you will notice only OS Open Data. Climate Central’s Coastal DEM data focus on littoral areas — thus less reliable inland where most of the populations centres are — and were thus not used here.

Tables


This information is tabulated as general areas affected and specific settlements:

click to enlarge
click to enlarge


Prognosis

Here is the updated synoptic table from the previous post:

click to enlarge
These numbers confirm conclusions from  Part  7 regarding the impact of flooded land from sea level rise, together with added info on settlements:
  • mid-century consensus and models put sea level rise at 0.5 m. and temperature anomalies at 3°C in a moderate emissions scenario, while end-century estimates are 2 m. and 9°C in the same scenario
  • separate calculations point to a 30–35% increase in land submergence from sea level rise, in other words a third more of the land would become un-arable in East Anglia considered to be England’s breadbasket
  • the impact on population is far less dramatic at less than 10% in the more remote reaches of the Fenlands — historically populations gathered away from flood zones in this complex agricultural geography

Conclusion

So here are ranking the areas of increasing concern:
  • settlements appear to be the least affected in the remote Fenland areas
  • sea level rise could increase by a third the submergence of cultivated areas
  • temperature anomalies are well above IPCC projections, and offer a land counterpart to recently reported high oceanic temperature anomalies


Monday, 30 December 2019

Friday, 20 December 2019

Flood risk model

Local Community Engagement, 1, 2, 2a3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 89 &10


[Update: Part 11 sorts river runoff contribution from that of river & sea in flood risks]

Wednesday, 18 December 2019

Village Voice

Local Community Engagement, 122a345678 & 9


[Update: Part 10 adds flood risks to coastal inundation and temperature regime models]

Sunday, 8 December 2019

Wednesday, 27 November 2019

Coastal Indundation

Local Community Engagement, 122a3456 & 7


[Update 1: Part 8 on temperature anomaly scenarios further constrains the debate
Update 2: Part 11 on flood risk modelling helped augment the synopsis at bottom]

Friday, 15 November 2019

Mock Press Release

Local Community Engagement, 122a345 & 6


[Update: Part 7 on coastal inundation scenarios adds some parameters in the debate.]

Thursday, 3 October 2019

Sunday, 8 September 2019