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"So long and thanks for the maps"

"So long and thanks for all the fish, I meant maps (apologies to Douglas Adams)" was the last post in my #30DayMapChallenge report...

Sunday, 8 December 2019

Temperature Regime

Local Community Engagement 12345678, & 9

[Update: Part 10 follows up village engagement process via recent Parish Council update]

The next question is what temperature regime will follow in that same time frame? Open data to the rescue again! The Met Office's Climate Projection (UKCP, @MetOffice_Sci) have modelled possible future temperature changes and posted their products here with guidance here. Let's look at the maximum air temperature anomalies at their highest resolution (2.2 km. sq.) for East Anglia for the net 20 years. See details at bottom.

These are the highest anomalies for summertime temperatures, ranging from 2.0 to 2.8°C. Toggle the layers in pairs to see autumn, winter and spring anomalies. Click on the dots to get individual  readings.

See the tapering off from SW to NE, from inland urban toward coastal  areas. Like the previous post, this gives us a fix on ranges and time frames. More scenarios are available and I may post a workflow  to help you derive your own from UK Met Office open data (full details).


Here are the statistics posted on Cottenham Open shared drive here. See how even the least aggressive could put temperature anomaly projections well beyond IPCC recommendations. Note that these are probabilistic projections. Temperatures mapped above are actual projections and thus more constrained. We attempt here to impart some real data and explain all caveats.

(click to enlarge)

Tech details: UKCP map the anomalies for local (2.2km) projections regridded to 5km over UK for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 only, for  2021-2040 for all ensemble members on 1981-2000 baseline. In RCP 8.5, emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.