Bomber, missile & drone ranges in current Iran conflict

This follows on a previous post mapping long-haul flights (this blog) in a similar manner.

March update: ballistic missile range map differ slightly from aircraft range maps.

Late March update: debunking sensationalist press re: drone threat Down Under...

2026 Iran Conflict

Currently in the news, the UK prohibited the use of forward bases by the US, whereas that issue was sidestepped last summer for US intervention in Iran (Perplexity). Having looked at the range of fighter jets in Arctic War games (this blog), I did the same for B52 bombers (Perplexity). Here are the relevant data:

The B-52’s unrefuelled combat range is a bit over 8,800 miles (about 14,100 km). So I used a 4,400 Statute Mile buffer. Remember to halve the full range to allow return trips. I also didn't use the refuelling option: while that was practical for last June B2 single overnight strike, B52 with significantly heavier loads need staging:

I lived in Cambridge UK, home of Marshall Aerospace not far from Mildenhall and other joint UK US air force bases. B52s have been built since the 50's, but they have been retrofitted at Marshall with the latest in electronics. They combine the best of both worlds: over-engineered analog jets ("fly-by-wire" came a generation later) and recent equipment. This and the B2 / B52 distinction were acc. to friends working at Marshall in previous unrelated chats.

Tech corner: most maps are in degrees, so how to map distances? Equidistant projections allow distance measurements, but they are restricted locally not globally (Perplexity). Maps & worldwide buffers get severely distorted globally as is needed here (L to R: azimuthal, conic, cylindrical, two-point & world cylindrical, plots below done @ 1:225M in ArcGIS Pro):

click to enlarge, original

So, I used Spilhaus projection that is ocean-centric for the same reason as mapping long-haul flights here, emphasis added:

From my Story Map portfolio here, my second 30DayMapChallenge here during COVID, and an extra on "Day 15b: Connections": Inspired by  @pheebely  tweet "Ten Longest Haul Flights" here, which I remapped in Spilhaus projection... Why? Because it's ocean-centric! Long-haul flights tend to go over oceans, not only to follow "great circles" (shortest distance over a globe), but also for safety (less risk of ground damage in the unlikely case of an accident). In Esri ArcGIS Pro with publicly available fight path data.

Big thank you to Esri's Boyan Savric, David Burrows and John Nelson for recreating and publicizing this quixotic yet handy projection (Esri, Perplexity).

click to enlarge, original

See why to reach the Middle-East (top center), taking off from Barksdale AFB (top left) requires a transit via Fairford UK, and from Guam (middle right) via Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territory (Chagos Archipelago also in the news for other reasons last year).

20 March 2026 Update

First the UK allowed used of both UK-US forward bases.

Second:

Iran recently fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) toward the Diego Garcia UK-US military base in the Indian Ocean, though neither reached the target—one malfunctioned mid-flight and the other was intercepted. Analysts identify these as likely Khorramshahr-4 missiles, which Iran has used in prior strikes and which match the demonstrated capabilities (NBC News in Perplexity thread).

click to enlarge, original

Legend detail: mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) for Khorramshahr-series intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs)

So I repeated the same as above: 

• post the centroid for Iran as these are mobile units
• buffer full range of 4,000 km as missiles are one-way (unlike bombers that are two-way, thus map half the range)
• overlay atop the previous map in ocean-centric projection

Again the Spilhaus Projections (Esri) is great: aircraft navigation is mostly over oceans where possible, to shorten flight paths (see also Longest haul flights... here), and to reduce unlikely accidents over populated land. 

The map shows that while missiles could reach Diego Garcia, and they could reach eastern Europe... but not all of Europe (never mind the US) per sensationalist news media I! 

26 March 2026 Update

Outright sensationalist news from Down Under:  Australia, too, is in the shadow of the Shahed (The Strategist)... not! Having grown up in Oz, I have a sense of distances in SE Asia, and surely drones don't have an IRBM range described above... even from Chinese, North Korean or Russian outposts!

While we can easily fact-check on Perplexity here, let's simply recycle the map above, shall we? I kept the Iranian centroid & missile range for reference. I added Shahed regular 2,500 km. range and Shahed extended 4,000 km. range from each launch site suggested by Perplexity:

click to enlarge, original

The map clearly shows that the extended range - non-existent as yet - doesn't come close to threatening Australia. 

Extended Economic Zone (EEZ)

Unless China launches from South China Sea... See end of Perplexity here on UNCLOS interpretation - or lack thereof - on what's allowed for international water launches.

There also happened to be a handy map of EEZ for the South China Sea, probably due to unrelated geographic disputes in that area.

click to enlarge, original

Let's repeat the same exercise, and post a marine launch site at the southern extreme international waters. Lets then map the 2,500 current & 4,000 km. extended ranges. We see that the current Shahed range falls short. The extended range only covers the NW Australia. That spares the populated areas along the east,  south & southwest. So the newspaper should consult a map first.