Coastal Inundation

Local Community Engagement 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8

[Update: Part 9 on temperature anomaly scenarios further constrains the debate]

Areas affected by sea level rise scenarios

Local Community Engagement 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, & 12

[ Update: There follows a tally here of what we've collected so far. ]

So far we've looked at sea level rise, timing, temperature regime and risk of flooding from land and from sea. These scenarios were developed using open data from Ordnance Survey and Climate Central for elevation models, UK Met Office for temperature and DEFRA for flooding. This was also put in a time and IPCC scenario context from scientific publications.

The second most important thing  for East Anglia Fenlands residents after the timing of such scenarios, is the actual areas affected by them. Having collected all the underpinning information, it was a matter of overlaying climate data with settlement data: infrastructure was posted in Part 2  from OS Open Zoomstack, and settlements were posted in Part 6 as a local Wikimedia gazetteer.

East Anglia sea level rise timelines update

Community Engagement  1, ... 12, 13, 14 & 15

[ Update 3: the next installment updates the infrastructure aspects of this for East Anglia

Update 2: Cambridge could be completely underwater by 2100, warns Emoov report

Update 1: added slide deck at bottom, to summarize the last two years of work on this ]

After a hiatus focusing on Coronavirus and story maps on East Anglia and other mapping topics, let's revisit that moving target of sea level rise timing. 

Hurricanes, tornadoes and sea level rise

 Further to our explorations in AI here and to the previous post here, this is a 'conversation' with Copilot, Microsoft Bing's AI extension. Conversation means that you can daisy-chain questions without repeating them, either to extend or to zero in:

Q: Difference between hurricane and tornadoe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado

A: Hurricanes and tornadoes are both powerful weather phenomena, but they have some key differences:

Formation and Location

- Hurricanes form over warm ocean waters, typically near the equator. They require a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical oceans, moisture, and relatively light winds¹.

- Tornadoes form over land, usually from severe thunderstorms. They often occur in areas with high wind shear, where there is a significant change in wind speed and direction with height².

Size and Duration

- Hurricanes are much larger, with diameters ranging from 100 to 2,000 kilometers (up to 1,000 miles). They can last from several days to a few weeks².

- Tornadoes are smaller, typically less than 2 miles wide, and usually last only a few minutes to a couple of hours².

Wind Speed

- Hurricanes generally have wind speeds less than 180 mph².

- Tornadoes can have wind speeds up to 300 mph, making them more intense in terms of wind speed over a smaller area².

Impact and Damage

- Hurricanes cause widespread damage due to their size and the heavy rainfall, storm surges, and flooding they bring¹.

- Tornadoes cause localized damage along their narrow path, but the destruction can be severe due to their high wind speeds².

Both hurricanes and tornadoes are dangerous and can cause significant damage, but understanding their differences can help in preparing for and responding to these natural disasters.

Is there anything specific you would like to know more about regarding hurricanes or tornadoes?

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 12/10/2024

(1) What is the difference between a tornado and a hurricane? https://gpm.nasa.gov/resources/faq/what-difference-between-tornado-and-hurricane

(2) Hurricane vs Tornado – The Similarities and Differences. https://sciencenotes.org/hurricane-vs-tornado-the-similarities-and-differences/

(3) Cyclone vs. Typhoon vs. Hurricane: Are They All The Same? https://www.dictionary.com/e/typhoons-hurricanes-cyclones/

(4) Hurricane vs. Tornado: What's the Difference? https://www.difference.wiki/hurricane-vs-tornado/

(5) What's the difference between a hurricane and a tornado? - NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/what-s-difference-between-hurricane-tornado-ncna1011676

(6) Getty Images. https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/tornado-struck-on-agricultural-fields-at-sunset-royalty-free-image/671793326

Q: Is there a reletionship between them

A: Yes, there is a relationship between hurricanes and tornadoes, although they are distinct phenomena. Here are some key points:

Tornadoes Within Hurricanes

- Tornadoes can form within hurricanes. When a hurricane makes landfall, the interaction with the land can create conditions favorable for tornado formation, especially in the outer rainbands of the hurricane².

Shared Atmospheric Conditions

 Both hurricanes and tornadoes are driven by **convective energy**, which involves the rising of warm, moist air². This shared mechanism means that both types of storms can occur under similar atmospheric conditions, although the specifics differ.

Differences in Formation and Behavior

- Hurricanes require warm ocean waters and form over these waters, while tornadoes typically form over land from severe thunderstorms².

- Hurricanes are large-scale systems that can last for days or weeks, whereas tornadoes are much smaller and usually last for minutes to a few hours².

Impact of Wind Shear

- Wind shear plays a crucial role in the formation of both hurricanes and tornadoes. However, hurricanes thrive in environments with low vertical wind shear, while tornadoes often form in areas with high wind shear⁴.

Understanding these relationships helps meteorologists predict and prepare for the potential impacts of these powerful storms. If you have any more questions or need further details, feel free to ask!

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 12/10/2024

(1) Hurricane vs Tornado – The Similarities and Differences. https://sciencenotes.org/hurricane-vs-tornado-the-similarities-and-differences/

(2) Hurricanes: Science and Society: Tornadoes. https://www.hurricanescience.org/society/impacts/tornadoes/

(3) Are hurricanes like giant tornadoes? Why their damage is so different. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/science/explainers/tornadoes-versus-hurricanes-why-their-damage-is-so-different

(4) Tornado Vs. Hurricane: What’s The Difference? - Techiescientist. https://techiescientist.com/tornado-vs-hurricane/

(5) How do tornadoes and hurricanes compare? - University of Miami. https://news.miami.edu/stories/2019/03/how-do-tornadoes-and-hurricanes-compare.html

Q: Is there a relationship with Sea Level Rise?

A: Yes, there is a relationship between sea level rise and hurricanes, and to a lesser extent, tornadoes. Here are some key points:

Hurricanes and Sea Level Rise

- Increased Coastal Flooding: As sea levels rise, the impact of storm surges from hurricanes becomes more severe. Higher sea levels mean that storm surges can push further inland, causing more extensive flooding¹⁴.

- Intensified Storms: Warmer sea surface temperatures, which contribute to sea level rise, can also lead to more intense hurricanes. These warmer waters provide more energy for hurricanes, potentially increasing their intensity and the amount of rainfall they produce³.

Tornadoes and Sea Level Rise

- Indirect Relationship: While sea level rise does not directly cause tornadoes, the conditions that lead to more intense hurricanes (such as warmer sea surface temperatures) can also create environments conducive to tornado formation within hurricanes⁵.

Overall Impact

- Increased Risk: The combination of higher sea levels and more intense storms means that coastal areas are at greater risk of severe weather events. This can lead to more significant damage and higher costs for recovery and rebuilding¹⁴.

Understanding these relationships helps in preparing for and mitigating the impacts of these powerful storms. If you have more questions or need further details, feel free to ask!

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 12/10/2024

(1) Global Warming and Hurricanes - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

(2) Sea Level Rise - MIT Climate Portal. https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/sea-level-rise

(3) A Force of Nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/a-force-of-nature-hurricanes-in-a-changing-climate/

(4) Hurricane Milton: Why do tornadoes form within hurricanes? - The Hill. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4927302-hurricane-milton-tornadoes-climate-change/

(5) Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate - IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/

"With a little help from my friends", Part II

New how-to 

Part I showed how a map of DEFRA open data can help situational awareness for a West Midlands XR event. Having done a sea level rise and risk of flooding map for the Thames River valley near London last year, I redid one now with the lessons learned in the interval. The previous Sea Level Rise map from Open Data was rather onerous: I streamlined the process to simply load free & open data with only GIS styling; the resulting Build your own can be replicated on other GIS with listed data sources.

Climate Emergency maps as easy as 1-2-3

Almost 2½ years ago I blogged then presented Emergency response maps as easy as 1-2-3 - in fact that helped spur on my current venture described in previous posts - and now apply the same to do inundation maps from sea level rise as well as river run-off.

Sea Level Rise Maps #reloaded

[ Update 2: at bottom is the comprehensive water web map that followed this...

Update 1: near the end of the story map, see how you can style your own DEM tiles ]

 East Anglia Flood Defences Final showcased in a story map the entire flooding infrastructure framework for the region, both from rising sea levels and risk of flooding, complete w flood defence infrastructure.

Online discussions in the wake of the IPCC 2021 report broadened that scope back to an original posting almost two years ago Sea level rise models show ins&outs of climate change science. Here is that update expanding to England and NW Europe, wrapping in all the lessons learned along the way. 

Low tech / high tech map updates, Part II

[ Update: the next blog details and updates this via a story map and new data ]

Part I showed how high contrast map symbology of Sea Level Rise can be transferred to a paper map to take around events. When asked if I could scan and reprint that paper map, I thought: why print a hand-transfer, why not print the digital original? Better still: why not try and enhance that digital map to really give an impression of sea level rise gradually invading the land?

Global sea level rise revisited

Update: so follow-on here with definions and relationsips among these topics

I posted here 3 yrs. ago among a series of DIY map notes to encourage Citizen Science, how to use NOAA global digital elevation data to model sea level rise data on straight geometry. See also here for an explanation referring to East Anglia. Here is what it looks like from the DIY document:

Listen to the Scientists - Part II

[ Update: a later post shows another outreach tool, a poster depicting sea level rise scenarios ]

Part I showed web maps of London and East Anglia under 0.5, 2 and 6 m. sea level rise by mid-, end- and next century in moderate, far-tail and extreme IPCC emissions scenarios, respectively. The next post updated a simple approach to the public using paper maps, which are both visually arresting and factually correct. Videos are also an effective way to convey complex scenarios by animating those maps, and setting them in regional and local contexts. They help illustrate the climate emergency.

"With a little help from my friends"

[ Update:  Part II re-uses this and improves the manual for a London area action ]

Part of our mandate at cottenham.info is to raise awareness around climate change issues in East Anglia. A key part is to quantify risks around flooding from land during increasingly variable weather, as well as to predict what sea level rise would look like over time from melting polar ice caps. That combines respectively excellent ground work by DEFRA - see their Future Fens twitter feed - and modelling against topography by Ordnance Survey and DEFRA. And timing of sea level rises is an emotional issue: to balance the reality of the risk with questions around time scales (see comment), will help raise awareness without unduly raising alarm.

Low tech / high tech map updates

[ Update: see a follow-on post on how a poster helps get the sea level rise message in context ]

At last summer Street for Life (S4L) and Cottenham Beach Party events by Extinction Rebellion (XR) Cambridge, a simple sea level rise map was a hit with children and adults alike: I simply stuck on cardboard backing an Ordnance Survey 1:25,000 Explorer map of Cambridge on side, and villages immediately north on the other. The +5 and +15 m. sea level rises (SLR) from the 2006 firetreemap  were hand-drawn, but eyeballing it made it pretty inaccurate... and +15 and +5 m. were picked because they overlapped Cambridge and villages north, rather than anything scientific!

Sea level rise web map, poster and pirate map

[ Update 3: action in Update 1 resulted in Trinity Hall declaring divestment... hurray!
Update 2: the next post rounds this up with a Story Map that includes flood risk
Update 1: here is a video of the action mentioned below, re: colleges divest from oil ]

An Extinction Rebellion Cambridge action, demanding colleges divest from oil investment, led to a simple yet arresting idea: map the level below 12 m. sea level rise each college would be under, if climate change we left unabated, as a means to help convince them of the consequences of climate inaction.

 

East Anglia sea level rise infrastructure update

Community Engagement  1, ... 12, 13, 14, 15 & 16

[ Update 3: the next installment includes Environment Agency's flood defence data

Update 2: here is an update via Enviro. Agency's outreach twitter @FutureFens

Update 1: here is a story map augmenting the last two posts with live maps... enjoy! ]

Following on the previous timelines update focusing on Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Combine Authority, this is an East Anglia-wide update based on Environment Agency (EA) Survey,  Office for National Statistics (ONS) Geoportal and Ordnance Survey (OS) Open Zoomstack data. 

Sea Level Rise (cont.)... and a Story Map!

[ Update 3: see a follow-on story map next. on local flooding effects just north of there...
Update2: thanks to Esri(UK) and Esri folk who helped my return to 3D web mapping! 
Update 1: check Sea Level Rise model affecting Central Cambridge area on YouTube ]

Let's wrap up Sea level rise web map, poster and pirate map: having started with a simple map of Cambridge University Colleges indicating how deeply they would be submerged in a sea level rise scenario, let's map the buildings in 3D and show how far raised sea levels would submerge them! But first let's start with a flood risk map and finish with a combination to help with situational awareness. 

Flood risk model

Local Community Engagement 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 &11

[Update 1: Part 12 describes Cambridgeshire Parishes affected by sea level rise
Update 2: here is a Story Map that explains the background info to this project
Update 3: this Story Map relates flash floods and not river or coastal inundation]

Webmaps, history, climate and geology

Chatting with local history buffs brought up amazing facts about climate change and sea level rise since the Middle Ages in East Anglia. One book's sketch map relates how the North Sea coastline differed from today, and how that affected Anglo-Saxon socio-economics there before and after the Norman conquest and the Domesday book.

Poster catalogue

[ Update 2: Anaglyph 3D pops up Central Cambridge halfway down under Other Areas

Update 1: added four effects to enhance relief maps on mountain areas at the bottom ]

Last month's Story-in-a-map reminded me I created a number of map posters, as a mean to reach out to the community, where prints are better in town hall or small group presentations, as well as wall art.

A return to my roots

Updates: mapping climate data from historic ships & global harmonization follow respectively here & here.

 "You can get Andrew outa maps, but you can't get maps outa Andrew" quipped a GIS map friend when I left Kuwait a dozen years ago... Well after quitting socials, Esri(UK) graciously helped me recover my desktop app. While I lost my story maps and web maps content, I maintained a free dev account - story maps and maps&data - this was chiefly to preserve my Living Atlas content inspired by John Nelson. 

Sea Level Rise update

The last post before peatlands (recent update here) was the East Anglia flood protection infrastructure here - both used extensive Environment Agency data, publicly available if needing some (at time extensive) work as described therein. Here are further DIY resources to create maps like this fun pirate map of East Anglia under 12 m. water est. around 2150AD (from here updated here):