Flood risk model

Local Community Engagement 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 &11

[Update 1: Part 12 describes Cambridgeshire Parishes affected by sea level rise
Update 2: here is a Story Map that explains the background info to this project
Update 3: this Story Map relates flash floods and not river or coastal inundation]

"With a little help from my friends"

[ Update:  Part II re-uses this and improves the manual for a London area action ]

Part of our mandate at cottenham.info is to raise awareness around climate change issues in East Anglia. A key part is to quantify risks around flooding from land during increasingly variable weather, as well as to predict what sea level rise would look like over time from melting polar ice caps. That combines respectively excellent ground work by DEFRA - see their Future Fens twitter feed - and modelling against topography by Ordnance Survey and DEFRA. And timing of sea level rises is an emotional issue: to balance the reality of the risk with questions around time scales (see comment), will help raise awareness without unduly raising alarm.

"With a little help from my friends", Part II

Update: see an early 2025 to update these maps around the Thames Barrier here.

New how-to 

Part I showed how a map of DEFRA open data can help situational awareness for a West Midlands XR event. Having done a sea level rise and risk of flooding map for the Thames River valley near London last year, I redid one now with the lessons learned in the interval. The previous Sea Level Rise map from Open Data was rather onerous: I streamlined the process to simply load free & open data with only GIS styling; the resulting Build your own can be replicated on other GIS with listed data sources.

Digital terrain models help create a picture - Part II

[ Update: see new arcgis.com interface for another view of this here & under Update 5 here ]

The previous post showed how digital terrain, surface (add buildings & vegetation) and elevation (detail topography) models highlight geomorphology (land features) and infrastructure (roads, canals etc.). That was in the Cambridgeshire area of the southern Fenlands of East Anglia, as a complement to sea level rise models from coastal inundation, as well as flood risk maps from rivers and from sea.

Releasing data really works, Part VII

And now for something completely different - the original posts until Part VI are listed below - I ran across a nice map of Steve Feldman's: He also tried out free data and software to map UK flood maps, an up-scaled version not for professional re-use.

London Thames Barrier revisited

Update 2: see renewed Sea-level Rise extents according to new information here 

Update 1: see addition at bottom... thanks to our indefatigable London climate activists!

Further to my original blog post 3½ yrs. ago here, I was asked to share maps of the area surrounding the Thames Barrier (Wikipedia): A WhatsApp group considered the necessity for a second barrier under Climate Change that increases both flooding and sea level seasonal elevations. 

2050 Scenario? Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

This follows on a map story here.  The next one is here.

After revisiting a number of topics for just over a year here, let's address an item of some urgency: stalling the Gulf Stream may end Western Europe's historic privilege; to be a warm enclave between two 'normal' bands at its latitudes. It's not an Ice Age but think how much colder New York and Montreal are than London or Paris. 

It may be hard to wrap our minds around cooling at a time where climate warming hits the headlines - and rightfully so -  and before climate deniers jump on this, please consult the scientific consensus behind all this under two Microsoft Copilot headings at the bottom: AMOC update, a political declaration of Nordic countries affected and estimated timeline of its collapse.

Update 1: AMOC collapse effect presented at the National Emergency Briefing last week in London here HT YouTube @JustHaveaThink

Update 2: data support my graphics under Precisions just before Bonus at the bottom.

Poster catalogue

Update 2: Anaglyph 3D pops up Central Cambridge halfway down under Other Areas

Update 1: added four effects to enhance relief maps on mountain areas at the bottom

Tip: see how to make topography look "right side up" in a trick around light source

Last month's Story-in-a-map reminded me I created a number of map posters, as a mean to reach out to the community, where prints are better in town hall or small group presentations, as well as wall art.

Return East Anglia Peatlands to being carbon sinks

Community Engagement  1, ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 & 20

Update 7: peatlands restoration in Dartmoor here

Update 6: peatlands revisited in 2025 here

Update 5: Community Interest Company re-engagement is here

Update 4: actual Fenlanders interviewed in this fab blog post

Update 3: peatland restoration by numbers, Indonesian example

Update 2: soil degradation and climate change masterclass, TEDtalk pointers

Update: added Why we should all be obsessed with Peatlands at the end of the story map below ]

No. 20! Isn't it fitting that chronicling East Anglia challenges & opportunities w.r.t. climate emergency - risk of flooding, sea level rise,  vulnerability indices and now pandemic - uncovered the greatest opportunity yet: returning local peatlands from carbon emitters to original carbon sinks could dwarf any individual effort to mitigate CO2 emissions, currently the major driver of climate change.

Sea Level Rise Maps #reloaded

[ Update 2: at bottom is the comprehensive water web map that followed this...

Update 1: near the end of the story map, see how you can style your own DEM tiles ]

 East Anglia Flood Defences Final showcased in a story map the entire flooding infrastructure framework for the region, both from rising sea levels and risk of flooding, complete w flood defence infrastructure.

Online discussions in the wake of the IPCC 2021 report broadened that scope back to an original posting almost two years ago Sea level rise models show ins&outs of climate change science. Here is that update expanding to England and NW Europe, wrapping in all the lessons learned along the way. 

Cumbria classic revisited, Appleby-in-Westmoreland

Almost four years ago, a story map here showed the Skelworth Fold area of the Lake District for a friend, using advanced mapping and Environment Agency digital elevation.

East Anglia sea level rise infrastructure update

Community Engagement  1, ... 12, 13, 14, 15 & 16

[ Update 3: the next installment includes Environment Agency's flood defence data

Update 2: here is an update via Enviro. Agency's outreach twitter @FutureFens

Update 1: here is a story map augmenting the last two posts with live maps... enjoy! ]

Following on the previous timelines update focusing on Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Combine Authority, this is an East Anglia-wide update based on Environment Agency (EA) Survey,  Office for National Statistics (ONS) Geoportal and Ordnance Survey (OS) Open Zoomstack data. 

Cottenham Open CIC rebooted

Community Engagement  1, ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 & 21

Update: the next post (here) will show how a blog post on creating maps, is created by generating prompts  using Bing AI in a Udemy course on prompt engineering following STAR (style-task-audience-role).

Re-engaging après-COVID what is in LinkedIn, below & Esri Hub: Part 1 outlined Community Engagement. Part 2 built a story introducing the community. Part 3 tied together community maps and climate mapping. Part 4 introduced a process framework for this community engagement. Part 5 expanded on our aim toward a community engagement.  Part 6 added our own Wikipedia Gazetteer as we build up the local landscape. Part 7 showed a draft Press Release introducing our social enterprise. Part 8 on coastal inundation scenarios adds some parameters in the debate. Part 9 on temperature anomaly scenarios further constrains the debate. Part 10 followed up village engagement process via recent Parish Council update. Part 11 added flood risks to coastal inundation and temperature regime models. Part 12 described Cambridgeshire Parishes affected by sea level rise. And finally here we introduce AI with a local twist.

East Anglia Flood Defences Update

Community Engagement  1, ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 & 17

[ Update: the next blogpost extends this into a 3d interactive map wrapping up this 2 years study ]

This closes the trio of updates on sea level rise timelines and infrastructure based on newly available climate change data, since this project started two years ago. 

Environment Agency's DEFRA not only manages a comprehensive Risk of Flooding for River and from Sea via ground observations and mapping, but it also manages all the infrastructure related to flood risks from the same. 

Let's extend our ongoing mapping effort here to include AIMS Spatial Flood Defences (inc. standardised attributes):

Sea level rise web map, poster and pirate map

[ Update 3: action in Update 1 resulted in Trinity Hall declaring divestment... hurray!
Update 2: the next post rounds this up with a Story Map that includes flood risk
Update 1: here is a video of the action mentioned below, re: colleges divest from oil ]

An Extinction Rebellion Cambridge action, demanding colleges divest from oil investment, led to a simple yet arresting idea: map the level below 12 m. sea level rise each college would be under, if climate change we left unabated, as a means to help convince them of the consequences of climate inaction.

 

Emergency response maps as easy as 1-2-3

Update 5: read here my  new occupation inspired by this 18 months later
Update 4: for a predictive app using Esri & Alexa, see this example in Maryland
Update 3: presented at European Petroleum GIS Conference in London, 2 Nov 2017
Update 2: Medium professional channel posting on Open Data issues raised here
Update 1: Youtube of  freely available data show flood spread from 27 to 30 August

Crowdsourcing for disaster response

Sea Level Rise (cont.)... and a Story Map!

[ Update 3: see a follow-on story map next. on local flooding effects just north of there...
Update2: thanks to Esri(UK) and Esri folk who helped my return to 3D web mapping! 
Update 1: check Sea Level Rise model affecting Central Cambridge area on YouTube ]

Let's wrap up Sea level rise web map, poster and pirate map: having started with a simple map of Cambridge University Colleges indicating how deeply they would be submerged in a sea level rise scenario, let's map the buildings in 3D and show how far raised sea levels would submerge them! But first let's start with a flood risk map and finish with a combination to help with situational awareness. 

Cottenham Open Manifesto

Community Engagement 1, ... 12, 13 & 14

[ Update 3: Next installment in this series is here

Update 2: see Fens for the Future and UNESCO Great Fen Biosphere Project

Update 1: Item #5 has already started  at ARU Peterborough, see bottom clip ]

The previous post tallied three series - community engagement, and geo-info and pandemic maps & stats - since starting cottenham.info almost 18 mo. ago. Not only will Anthropocene East Anglia give a geo-historical framework for it all, it also highlights the opportunities and challenges in the future, which we proposes to address. Let's detail our proposed road map issued from all this as well as discussions with local councils, ecologists, and neighbouring village revival planners:

Digital Nomads and Digital Divide

 Here is the Parliament   f i n a l l y    addressing the challenges posed by the pandemic, with a fairly comprehensive review of the facts they gathered.

Listen to the scientists

[Update 2: in Part II, XR Cambridge Rebel Scientists produced a video tying it all together
Update: East Anglia Fenlands + London Thames Valley inundation models now on YouTube!]

This is what happened at the first Extinction Rebellion Cambridge working group of concerned  scientists, on the topic of sea level rise (SLR) among many others discussed then. As posted earlier here, the scientific consensus lies at 0.5 and 2 m. SLR by mid- and end-century in moderate emissions and far-tail scenarios, respectively. That meeting reiterated, however, the importance of an extreme scenario, ~ 6 m. SLR from the melting of various ice sheets: 7 m. is in fact the default SLR setting for the original sea level rise map, flood.firetree.net.